This Week in Auto Racing August 17 - August 19

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/14/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a light week for racing unless you are trying to make the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Then it's a huge weekend, one of just four remaining, before we determine who will race for the 2007 championship and who will watch from the sidelines.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

3M Performance 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

Just four races remain until the cutoff for the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Following an eventful Sunday in upstate New York, the picture is becoming clearer as to who is a contender and who is just a pretender.

One thing is for sure, Kurt Busch is a contender. The No.2 Miller Lite Penske Racing Dodge driver has been on fire since the Pepsi 400 in early July. In his last five starts, Busch has one win (Pocono), three top-10s and finished no lower than 11th.

At the time he began to "heat up" he was 15th in the standings and staring at a second consecutive season without a chance at the title. Then something happened, the team jelled and now they find themselves solidly in the top-12. Busch has a 96-point lead on teammate Ryan Newman and 100 points ahead of stumbling Dale Earnhardt Jr.

In fact, at Pocono they were easily the best car on the track. Busch led 175 of 200 laps en route to a 4.131-second win and one of the most dominant performances of the season.

"It's all about momentum 'the big mo' -- and Busch and our entire Miller Lite Dodge team certainly have it going for us," said crew chief Pat Tryson on the team's website. "If you're fortunate enough to have 'the big mo' on your side, it's best to ride it for all it's worth and that's exactly what we're hoping to do."

The something that "happened" for the No.2 Dodge team was Tryson himself. Tryson took over the reins about two weeks before the sudden upswing in the team's performance. It took a little time to make changes, but now everyone can see the results.

Tryson teamed with Mark Martin at Roush Fenway Racing for the first three years of "The Chase" and they qualified in all three years. Last year he was switched over to Greg Biffle's team, but that didn't quite work out as planned.

"Competing for championships is our goal and Pat's proven that he has the ability to get top level teams and drivers into the Chase," said Tim Cindric, President of Penske Performance.

Newman, Busch's teammate at Penske, has been just outside the "Chase" all season and unfortunately appears on a course to stay there. Just two top-10s in the last five races and a accident that left him 42nd at Indianapolis has left him with only a slim chance at making NASCAR's "playoffs." Mark down Newman as a pretender.

For the millions of Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans this will be hard to read, but "Junior" is a pretender as well. He is 100 points out of the playoffs and has finished 34th or worse in three of the last five events. Not exactly the way to make a move up the charts. At Watkins Glen, Earnhardt Jr. finished 42nd after an engine failure, his team's second in the last three events. And with "Junior" already having one foot out the door, don't expect anything spectacular from this team over the next month.

Greg Biffle is 15th in the standings, but 212 points out of the "Chase." It's a tall order for Biffle to jump over three drivers and that many points. The team has been solid of late, but not extraordinary, which is what will be needed over the next month if the No.16 Roush Fenway Ford team is to make the leap into the "Chase."

The good news for Biffle is that he has had a lot of success at Michigan International Speedway. In nine starts, he has two wins and six top-10s and led 170 laps. His average finish at MIS of 12.778 is better than either Newman, Earnhardt Jr. or Kurt Busch.

For both the contenders and pretenders it's time to put up or shut up.

Busch

Carfax 250 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

Kevin Harvick is back to his 2006 Busch Series championship form these days, winning the last two Busch events (Montreal, Watkins Glen) and four of his last five starts.

In just 17 starts this year, Harvick has collected a series-high five wins and 15 top-10s. He is third in points despite missing seven races (29% of the season), in itself an amazing statistic.

While Harvick's win in Montreal was a matter of being in the right place at the right time to take advantage of other driver mistakes, at Watkins Glen he was dominant from start to finish leading a total of 49 of 82 laps.

Harvick has always been pretty good when it comes to turning right as well as left. In 14 Nextel Cup and Busch road course starts, he has won twice and earned nine top-10s in 14 races. It would have been 10 of 14 if Juan Pablo Montoya hadn't got into the back of him on Sunday, but that's a whole different can o' worms.

"We have been able to run in the top-10 and top-five at Watkins Glen and Sonoma," said Harvick on his team's website. "I am fine that my name doesn't get brought up when it comes to road-course experts. It kind of gives me a chance to fly under the radar a little."

This week Harvick and 19 other "Buschwhackers" will race in the "Saturday warmup."

Among them is Mark Martin, the all-time Busch Series leader at MIS with two wins, seven top-fives, eight top-10s, 304 laps led and an average finish of 4.2. He is the only driver two sweep a Michigan weekend, accomplishing the feat in August 1993.

Since it has been six paragraphs and there has yet been no reference to points leader Carl Edwards, who leads the series by 766 points, despite finishes of 30th and 32nd in the last two events. It shows just how great a start the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing driver had, posting nine consecutive top-six results, to start the season.

Edwards could take a month's vacation and still return in first place. Of course, a vacation for Edwards would be something like going dirt track racing back home, so he might as well continue to race each week and let as many fans as possible enjoy his "work."

Boxig Autoracing Betting News

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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.