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07/07/2010 - Inglewood, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rail Trip will take on six challengers on Saturday in defense of his title in the $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup at Hollywood Park. The five-year-old gelding will carry highweight of 123 pounds in the 1 1/4-mile race.
Owned by Jay Em Ess Stable, Rail Trip will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano for the third straight start and the pair will break from post six. Jose Valdivia, Jr. was aboard the gelding last year in winning the Gold Cup.
Rail Trip, trained by Ron Ellis, is coming off victories this year in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap and the Californian. No horse has swept those two races and the Gold Cup since Eleven Stitches in 1981.
"The nice thing about him is that he's almost turned into a mile and a quarter horse," noted Ellis. "He knows where the running starts and he's really strong down the lane. This year he's bigger, stronger and heavier. He's matured a lot. He's a real versatile horse and that's going to come in handy at some point.
"When he won the Gold Cup, he was at the end of a lot of races. This year, by purpose, we wanted to bring him in and point for the Breeders' Cup and have him ready for the second half of the year."
Rail Trip is within a few dollars of becoming a millionaire. The five-year-old has won eight of 11 career starts and earned $967,790.
A win on Saturday would make him just the third horse to claim the Gold Cup more than once. He would join Native Diver (1965-67) and Lava Man (2005-07), who each won the race three straight times.
Last year's runner-up, Tres Borrachos will try to get the best of Rail Trip for the third straight race. The five-year-old gelding was fourth in the Mervyn LeRoy and seventh in the Californian.
Trained by co-owner Beau Greely, Tres Borrachos will start from post six with Victor Espinoza again in the saddle.
"He's got ability, he's been training well, there's nothing wrong with him and he's got a good record at Hollywood Park," said Greely.
Winless since taking an allowance race at Hollywood in May of last year, the gelding has banked $602,682 while winning three of 26 lifetime starts.
Here is the full field for the Gold Cup in post position order: Cigar Man, Joe Talamo; Compari, Mike Smith; Awesome Gem, David Flores; Richard's Kid, Martin Garcia; Tres Borrachos, Victor Espinoza; Rail Trip, Rafael Bejarano and Tap It Light, Tyler Baze.
Post-time for the race is set for 7:35 p.m. (et).
<< White Sox put Peavy on DL
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have placed right-hander
Jake Peavy on the 15-day disabled list with a detached latissimus dorsi muscle
in his right posterior shoulder.
Peavy came down with the injury during Tuesday
<< Puyol's header powers Spain past Germany and into final
Durban, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carles Puyol's 73rd-minute header was
enough for Spain to claim a 1-0 win over Germany at Moses Mabhida Stadium on
Wednesday in a FIFA World Cup semifinal.
The win allows Spain to reach its first
<< Pirates acquire P Gallagher from Padres
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired reliever Sean
Gallagher from the San Diego Padres on Wednesday for cash considerations.
The right-handed Gallagher has spent four seasons in the majors and in the
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<< Report: Former Sharks G Nabokov heading to Russia
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Multiple media outlets are reporting that
former San Jose Sharks goaltender Evgeni Nabokov has signed to play in Russia.
TSN.ca is reporting Nabokov signed with SKA St. Petersburg of the Kontinental
Hock
Sabres bring back Lalime for one year >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Sabres agreed to terms with
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went 4-8-2 with
Yonkers Trot has eight for Saturday >>
Yonkers, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eight three-year-old trotters are set for
Saturday night's $573,770 Yonkers Trot, the first leg of trotting's Triple
Crown. The one-mile race has a scheduled post-time of 10 p.m. (et) at
Yonkers
Report: Bulls land Boozer >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls and free agent power forward
Carlos Boozer have reportedly agreed to a five-year contract.
The Chicago Tribune is citing two league sources on the pact, which ESPN
reports is for $80 mi
Avs ink Yip for two years >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche signed forward Brandon
Yip to a two-year contract on Wednesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed by the club, but the Denver Post reports
that it is worth $1.45 million for the dur
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
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